A Full Court Press for Infrequent Voters

Why we MUST reach the reluctant

Apr 17, 2024

By James D. Shelton

While canvassing in Virginia in 2023, I met a woman who had not voted since 2012. Yet I believe I was easily able to persuade her to vote. And in recent years, I’ve talked to hundreds of such infrequent voters. In my experience, they are by far the most likely prospects for garnering additional votes. But distressingly, in cycle after cycle, I’ve seen many campaigns missing out on these crucial voters. So I offer these thoughts to help campaigns, grassroots groups, donors, and others reach infrequent voters and win elections.

Why the Full Court Press?

Campaigns distinguish “persuasion” efforts, aimed at a small segment of swing voters, from “turnout” efforts directed toward supportive voters. And “turnout” is usually relegated to the final weeks of a campaign. While both approaches are important, analyst Michael Podhorzer has shown turnout to be the pivotal factor in winning elections. Meanwhile, campaign veteran Hal Malchow argues that outreach is most effective for infrequent voters. The esteemed Analyst Institute agrees, specifically in Presidential campaigns:

“Practitioners should define their GOTV universes to include as wide a range of vote propensity scores as possible, prioritizing those modeled least likely to vote.”

Yet ironically the lion’s share of resources goes toward persuasion efforts. We have to turn that on its head with a “full court press” to woo the all-important infrequent voter who makes or breaks elections.

Who are These Infrequent Voters?

Generally, infrequent voters share values espoused by Democrats. Typically they are “low information” voters – often youth, people of color, and working people – who don’t pay much attention to politics, largely because they are absorbed in their life challenges. How to reach them?

1. Begin Early and Allocate Major Resources

We must reallocate a major chunk of the billions devoted to “persuasion” to reach infrequent voters. And we can’t wait until fall when many feel fed up with political ads. Early connection will garner greater attention. Follow-ups can then reinforce the desired commitment. As Madison Avenue knows, repetition works.

2. Make Multiple Contacts via Multiple Avenues

Multiple contacts over time through different approaches provide strong reinforcement and increase prospects for success. Lead with canvassing, but include mail and digital outreach, including streaming TV, radio, phone, text, and broadcast TV.

3. Prioritize the Most Infrequent

Campaigns use a “Voter File,” a database rating voters on their likelihood of supporting Democrats and of voting. But campaigns often omit the most infrequent voters. Big mistake. Research shows that a significant percentage of infrequent voters can be persuaded to vote. And adding them to lists makes canvassing more efficient and more rewarding, with more doors per street to hit.

4. Go Beyond the Voter File

Data in voter files is far from perfect. And depending solely on such files can result in multiple and wasteful contacts among voters easiest to reach. Meanwhile numerous “invisible” voters are overlooked, not being on the list. But by going beyond the files, for example, by canvassing high traffic areas, you will encounter additional supportive voters.

It often makes sense to target apartments, townhouse communities, and college dorms, and to hit every door. Broader targeting also improves mail and digital outreach, especially among supportive groups. Where it makes sense, couple those efforts with voter registration.

5. Tap Emotions, Apply Soft Social Pressure

The main challenge isn’t convincing these voters whom to vote for. Rather it is motivating them to vote at all. Evoking emotions is a key. Focus on hot button issues likely to trigger strong responses — partisan politics, corporate greed, threats to civil liberties. Soft social pressure also makes effective messaging. Examples include:

— “Your vote is private, but whether you vote is public, so join with your neighbors to help our efforts”

— “Thanks for voting in 20XX. Keep your good voting record by voting again this year.”

6. Promote Voting, Pure and Simple

Most promos for voting itself are bland public service ads. What’s needed instead is highly targeted, high-quality messaging. Tell people why voting is important. Tell them how and where to vote. Tell them how easy it is to vote, and how good they will feel after voting. Many infrequent voters don’t know about same-day registration. Where it is permitted, tell them.

7. Support On-the-Ground Grassroots Groups

Grassroots groups, often led by people of color, typically strive year round to promote issues important to their communities. These often include voter registration and mobilization. These activists know their communities and have strong credibility among the populations they serve - typically including many infrequent voters. Early funding is crucial to get these groups mobilized before the election cycle ramps up.

8. Focus on Youth

Taylor Swift sparked 35,000 voter registrations with a single social media post, proof of the untapped potential of the youth vote. While not everyone has “Taylormania” on their side, anyone can reach youth using media and messengers they trust.

9. Support Organizations that Prioritize Infrequent Voters

Effective organizations that focus on infrequent voters often reach out in strategic, innovative ways. Leading examples include: Working America, Courier Newsroom, Forward Majority, the Environmental Voter Project, and Future Forward.

10. Combat Voter Suppression

Support challenges to voter suppression, support voter protection, and assist voters to obtain photo ID’s where required.

Conclusion: Too Important to Give Short Shrift in 2024

To win in 2024, we must put infrequent voters front and center. We know Trump will turn out his loyalists. Yes, our full court press will take resources, yet much of our work will be in refocusing. Few of us are positioned to weigh in with all of these recommendations, but together we can. We must. Our country depends on it.

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James D Shelton is a retired epidemiologist and political activist.