Early Money for State Legislatures
Fomenting a Blue Wave
By James Shelton
There’s no question that the U.S. congressional midterm races are critical. Top-of-the-ticket contests will receive huge attention and support. In what looks like a major blue wave year, we also need to heavily support state legislature races - so essential to the health of our democracy. From 2010-2016 Democrats lost nearly 1,000 state legislature seats—and we’ve been living with the consequences ever since. Now is our opportunity to rebuild and reclaim that ground.
The Opportunity
Trump’s policies have been politically disastrous and harmful to our democracy. The long list of his failures to deliver on his promise of improved economic well-being and his assaults to our well being include: stifling tariffs, tax cuts to opulent billionaires, masked thugs running amok in our cities, the Epstein cover-up, cuts to food assistance and health care, threats to democratic voting, desecration of our monuments, foreign malfeasance and misadventures, and more. His pathetic, demented, harebrained, erratic, lie-a-minute, increasingly frail and weak persona is turning off voters. Notably Trump’s unprecedented unpopularity and policies have contributed to major Democratic victories in key state and special elections. We should seize this momentum not only for the mid-term congressional elections, but for crucial state legislature elections.
Why State Legislatures?
They have a huge influence on national politics such as gerrymandering and election laws, but also have a crucial impact on laws that affect state residents and other states in their regions. North Carolina gerrymandering alone is enough to constitute the Republican majority in the U.S. House.
Small amounts of money in state level races can make a big difference, especially for challengers.
Reverse Coattails: Down-ballot Democratic candidates (and pro-democracy Independents) can enlist and turn out local supporters they have ties with, who will then go on to vote with Democratic candidates up-ballot.
They are “The Bench” of people who often go on to compete for higher office. Barack Obama was a State Senator in Illinois, and four years later was elected President.
Why Early Money?
Supporting a candidate early helps build the all important infrastructure to mount a successful campaign. Challenger campaigns typically start with little foundation and need rapid scale up to become effective. Staff needs to be hired, well-deployed, and get to know the territory and the “ropes.” They need to build internal and external relationships including key allies like the state party, grassroots groups, and local volunteers. And they should begin voter outreach early, including the basics like mail, social media/digital, and radio. It also allows them to plan, and to some extent free up candidates to actually campaign, rather than spending endless time asking for money.
Which States?
In the potential super wave, there will be major opportunities across the country and efforts should be widespread. But here are some priorities:
North Carolina, with its Democratic governor, has a razor thin margin to block a Republican super majority in the House that has run roughshod over democracy in the state in recent years. Infuriatingly, a few Democrats somewhat often defect to vote to override governor vetoes, thus advancing the hard-right agenda. We need a much better margin in the House, and must strive to make the state Senate veto proof as well.
Pennsylvania Democrats have only a one-vote House majority, so increasing the majority is a priority. Also picking up just two seats in the Senate, plus defending one vulnerable Senate seat recently won in a special election, would give a Democratic trifecta, assuming a popular Governor Shapiro is re-elected.
Michigan Democrats hold a very slim majority in the Senate, and need to flip four seats in the House for a majority, an entirely realistic goal in the current climate.
Wisconsin’s fairer maps from 2024 resulted in major gains in both chambers. With the other half of the Senate now up for election, achieving two seat flips is realistic. A number of near wins in the House in 2024 show that flipping five seats for a majority is realistic as well. Wisconsin is especially important since it remains ultra-gerrymandered in the U.S. House with Republicans in six of eight districts.
Minnesota currently has just a one vote Democratic majority in the Senate, and a tie in the House. The recent MAGA authoritarian debacle in Minnesota, sets up an opportunity for major gains.
Iowa has excellent prospects to elect a Democratic governor in 2026. The Senate has a razor-thin veto-proof Democratic membership thanks to a special election in 2024. But that seat needs to be defended and the Democratic membership expanded. Likewise, expanding Democratic seats in the House will enhance enlightened governance in Iowa.
Arizona is within striking distance in both the Senate and the House toward winning a Democratic trifecta, with incumbent Governor Katie Hobbs hopefully winning re-election.
Exceptionally Fine Candidates
Another advantage is our amazing cohort of candidates who are stepping forward to run for legislature seats. This is partly a result of intensive recruitment efforts, but also laudable public-spirited patriotism. It behooves us to provide them with commensurate support for their efforts.
Aim High Among Potential Races
It makes sense to prioritize key races most conducive toward a crucial goal such as flipping a chamber. But in what looks like a major blue wave year, it behooves us also to selectively support other longer shot candidates in potentially winnable races that may provide more “shots on goal” toward our objectives. That provides some insurance against untoward surprises that can occur in elections. And a more solid Democratic majority or plurality will advance our cause.
In addition, even when candidates lose, they often gain considerable experience and then are successful in a future election. And supporting additional vibrant legislature races leads to more up-ballot support.
Supporting Organizations
Direct financial support to key candidates is crucial, but so is supporting organizations focused on legislatures. Here are some groups that focus on legislature races.
The States Project - Provides major and astute support to state legislature efforts, including working with state Democratic House and Senate caucuses, providing financial support and expert assistance and promoting best practices. They organize Giving Circles with donors across the country which focus on specific states.
States Win - (Formerly Sister District) targets selected legislature races by supporting Democratic candidates, mobilizing volunteers, engaging voters, and equipping lawmakers with the tools to effectively govern.
Run for Something - Provides extensive assistance focusing on younger candidates. It has a roster of hundreds of thousands of potential and declared candidates across the country.
Contest Every Race - Has a mission to encourage candidates to run everywhere with emphasis on rural areas, so vital to our election objectives.
Democratic State House and Senate “Caucuses” and similar bodies - Each state has these Democratic Party elements that provide major leadership, technical assistance and other support to legislature elections.
Local Organizations - Many states have local grassroots and other groups that support legislature efforts as part of their missions.
Do it Now
Grassroots groups and others should grab this opportunity now to support legislative candidates either directly or by supporting organizations with early money and other support. As the saying goes, early money is like yeast, it makes campaigns grow.
My group, 31st Street Swing Left, plans to begin by supporting a slate of cutting edge challengers in North Carolina, thus taking advantage of their early March primary date. Of course, in some states, it will make sense to allow primaries to clarify the field for direct support. But in many cases there are already uncontested races or other stand-out candidates meriting support.
About the Author
James Shelton is a retired public health physician and epidemiologist, and political analyst for 31st Street Swing Left.
That red map alone tells the importance of the state legislatures - which we Virginians are so fortunate to have a true blue legislature. And we know that many groups like 31st Street have done wonders donating, knocking on doors and phone making to keep it that way. All readers who see the importance of state legislatures for themselves and for cantilevering Congressional representation through correcting Repub gerrymandering and the like - Please forward this to your network.
So many reasons to support candidates for state legislatures. Thanks for sharing this information. Every vote make such a difference in down ballot races. As you point out, many voters can relate more to local races than top of ticket races that can turn off so many voters.