Hey, Dems! Start voting “down-ballot!”
How Dems can win vital state elections
By Martha Merson
Meaningful numbers of Democratic voters came out in 2018, 2020, and 2022. But Democrats still lost close elections and missed taking control of state legislatures. What gives? Call it “The Roll-off Effect.”
Sister District co-founder Gaby Goldstein observed this dynamic and was determined to understand it and to help Democrats win down-ballot elections.
“We knew this ‘roll-off’ was happening for both Republicans and Democrats,” Goldstein said, “but there was very little research.” She and her team, which formed in 2016 to elect progressives in swing states, wondered: If we could get those voters who tick the top of the ballot to stop ignoring down-ballot races, could we swing more state governments blue?
To quantify the “roll-off” effect, Sister District researchers studied 10-plus years of data. “We found that roll-off happens much more frequently and profoundly for Democratic candidates,” Goldstein said.
In contested races, 80 percent of Democratic voters did not vote down-ballot compared to less than 40 percent for Republicans.
“The data confirmed what we already knew,” Goldstein said. “The roll-off effect is severe, it is affecting important elections, and even small decreases in roll-off would have big consequences.”
To learn who is rolling off the ballot and why, Sister District conducted surveys asking, "How often do you vote in state legislative races?" Other survey questions asked about civic duty and the role of state legislators. Key findings emerged clearly. Roll-off is more frequent among:
Young voters
Women
Voters of color
Ironically, these are the people most affected by down-ballot races because, in an era of shrinking federal power, state legislatures have control over so many fundamental issues. State lawmakers set policy for housing, reproductive rights, public health, and criminal justice reform. They determine teacher pay and tuition and fees for higher ed, set environmental regulations, and fund ways to address climate change. They also control funding for food and fuel assistance. And all that power could be determined by “roll-off.”
One problem, Goldstein said, is that too many Democrats don’t know what state legislators do. Republicans, more aware of states’ rights, know their state legislature matters and vote a complete ballot. But Democrats often opt out of voting for unfamiliar down ballot candidates, even though they care about issues like abortion access.
“Conservatives feel it’s their civic duty to vote for every candidate,” Goldstein said. “Democrats think it’s their duty to know before voting.”
To minimize roll-off, Goldstein and Sister District have just unveiled a toolkit and videos about the problem. Next Thursday, September 12, Sister District will officially launch the toolkit, which includes key findings from their research, general messaging guidance, tested messages and sample static ads.
“The clear finding of our research is that our voters feel it’s their civic duty to vote when they feel confident,” Goldstein said. “We are tying the issues that states control to voting and building familiarity with candidates. The big D [at the top of the ballot] isn’t enough for our voters. We must spread the word: state reps are important. Vote for them.”
Join Sister District’s down-ballot strategy briefing on Sept. 12. Here is the Mobilize link with details and sign-up for the event. Please feel free to share widely!
For more on this topic, check out these links:
All of Sister District’s recent and previous studies of roll-off can be found on this page: sisterdistrict.com/rolloff
The main findings from the survey referenced above are summarized in this memo.
Here is a link to the latest issue of States & Stats newsletter, which includes a deep dive on roll-off in the 2022 midterms.
Martha Merson canvasses with Swing Blue Alliance and has vowed to make the term “roll-off” roll off her tongue in conversations with volunteers and voters least 100 times in September.
The Blue Voter Guide (https://bluevoterguide.org) is a great resource for voters to help them feel that they know enough to vote down ballot.
From the website: Blue Voter Guide makes voting easy by clearly showing the endorsements of a wide range of forward looking organizations. Blue Voter Guide will show your ballot for all national offices, all statewide offices and ballot measures, and your state legislators. In most locations, we’ll show local races as well.
Great article Martha. Thanks for sharing the Sister District info and program.
One thing that Dems can do late in the game to reach many voters is to hand out "blue ballot" endorsement flyers at the polls. Mecklenburg County NC Dems did that last year and made a big difference in the last race on the ballot. It was a 14-way race for 3 school board seats, with no party designation next to candidate names. We gave blue ballots to about 1/2 the available voters -- that increased votes for the three endorsed candidates by about 5%. If we had reached all voters it would have been closer to 10%! And that's in a race where 40% of votes was enough to win a seat.
There's still time for Dems to design and print their own blue ballots for November.