Nudging the Youth Vote

How Dems can reach skeptical Gen-Zers

Will young voters turn out for Biden in 2024? Two political analysts explain how to make it happen.

By Jason and Jeremy Paul

First, the good news.

In the crucial 2022 Senate races, Democrats did well with young voters. From Pennsylvania to Arizona, from New Hampshire to Georgia, in Wisconsin and in Nevada, Democratic candidates won 63-76% of the vote. Precinct data from college campuses showed the same — near overwhelming Democratic support.  Since 2004, 18-29 year-olds have been essential to the Democratic coalition.  In 2020, voters 18-29 backed Joe Biden by 60-36 percent according to a CNN national exit poll.

Yet alarmingly, President Biden’s team has reason to doubt a repeat of its strong performance. Polling on this demographic has been all over the map. Close to home, at a lecture on “How Autocrats Seek Power,”  we heard students express doubts about whether the 2024 presidential election will provide an opportunity to cast a ballot against injustice. Although not a representative sample, these dissatisfied voters left us wondering: how should campaigns and grassroots groups engage with young voters as we approach the November election.  

Navigating the Negativity

Any serious effort to boost Democratic support among young voters must start with a core idea:  there is no single “youth vote.” Yes, young people are frustrated, and many are turned off by a repeat of the Trump-Biden contest. But it’s naïve to think President Biden can put his finger on the pulse of young America and tailor one message to fit all. 

What Biden’s supporters can do, however, is rise above the ambient negativity by shifting the discussion. Focus on policies a vote might produce rather than on how young people feel about the candidates. Based on careful analysis of available polling data, we recommend two overarching strategies.

First, Democrats must recognize that they are doing best with the most engaged voters.  The key is to focus on these young voters and develop plans to have core Democratic voters engage less-motivated friends. This can be done by building strong chapters of groups such as College Democrats of America, the American Constitution Society, or even Republicans Against Trump on college campuses.

This can be done by using social media affinity groups to overcome disinformation, and building a team of surrogates who might appeal to young people who just need a slight push.   Popular young musicians, actors, athletes and authors can all be enlisted to make an impression on wavering voters.

Finally, issue-oriented grassroots groups can detail the precise damage a second Trump term and a Republican-led Congress will do to the causes they champion.  Findings should be distilled into simple, relatable messages that can be spread among voters leaning toward Democrats.

We recognize that this strategy requires abandoning a longstanding Democratic tradition of turning out as many young voters as possible. Although it’s counter to our instincts, rallying the apathetic, especially those eager to blow off steam, might in this unusual year, not be to Democrats’ advantage.

The electoral rematch the public never wanted will likely depress turnout. If so, boosting Democratic numbers among young voters already connected to Democrat-leaning friends or family or even Trump antipathy might be just enough. 

Being Loud about Reproductive Freedom

The second overarching strategy is to lean with full force into the issue of reproductive freedom, specifically abortion.  The loudest voices make it appear that young voters are united on Gaza, or climate change, or student loans, but finding common ground on these points requires nuance that is elusive in today’s world of slogans and video clips.

Indeed, counting on young voters to save the climate runs counter to recent Wall Street Journal polling showing just 3% of swing state voters age 18-34 rate climate change as their most important issue.  By contrast, poll after poll, and more importantly, election after election, show that young people are strongly supportive of women’s freedom of choice.

Young people must hear — repeatedly and unequivocally, perhaps even with heart-wrenching videos of personal stories — that Democrats are the party that wants to keep government out of the bedroom and government hands off women’s bodies. Although this may seem obvious, some potential voters blame Biden for the overturning of Roe because it happened while he was president. We have to overcome the impulse to dismiss or sneer at this nonsense. Instead, we have to set the record straight and hit the issue hard. In outreach to young voters, this point should be prominent, since it is crucial to get Biden and Democrats everywhere across the finish line.

Clear communication

Focusing on an issue where differences are stark is much better than getting tangled in issues with more nuance.  If young voters want pro-choice policies, they have to vote for Biden. Telling voters what they “must” do might seem like bullying, but it is the truth. Shifting the discussion to what policies a vote might produce is possible and essential.  Changing the frame for young people will be easier than changing their emotions.

Jason Paul is a lawyer in Newton, MA and author of Political Trench Warfare in the Tinder Era. Jeremy Paul is Professor of Law at Northeastern University

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