On to Victory!

Why and How We Can WIn

By Steve Schear

With Kamala Harris as our candidate, we have a clear path to victory. Whatever you think about President Biden, questions about his age and capacities were our biggest obstacles to winning in November. Democratic policies are popular, MAGA policies are not.  We now have an open field to question Trump’s age, mental fitness and plans. We can elect Kamala Harris, hold the Senate and win the House. As Harris said on Monday, “We have doors to knock on.” We will win if we canvass at scale in the swing states.  

Why We Can Win

Roughly 40% of voters are firmly in either the GOP or Dem camps.  That leaves about 15-20% of voters undecided, as reflected in this week’s Reuters/Ipsos poll. The six swing states of Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have about 25 million voters, with about 4 or 5 million undecided.

After eight years of Trump in the limelight, and four years of Biden in the White House, the vast majority of the undecided are those who don’t pay much attention to politics. That is why Biden’s debate flop did not cause an immediate decline in his polling. Most of the undecided don’t spend their time on politics.      

However, because the undecided get their information from social media, and because the right-wing propaganda machine is very strong, millions might fall for MAGA misinformation. To counter this, we must engage in one-on-one conversations with those voters.  We can get a high percentage of them to vote Democratic by making honest personal connections that are more powerful than whatever they read on their phones.  

How We Can Beat Trump

Many studies show that canvassing, and especially deep canvassing, is the most powerful tool for persuading people whether to vote and how to vote.  (Deep canvassers spend 10-15 minutes at doors, establishing a rapport, exchanging stories, and finding common ground before moving on to persuasion.) 

Canvassing also makes intuitive sense. Face-to-face conversations with voters give us a unique opportunity to expose the dangers of Trump and MAGA. Canvassing also addresses issues that are most important to a particular voter, whether it’s the economy, democracy, climate change, health care, or anything else. 

Using voter rolls and earlier canvassing data inputs, we can identify each swing state’s most likely Undecideds, e.g. independents and people who didn’t vote in the 2022 midterms. We can’t identify swing state undecideds with as much precision as we’d like, but we can focus our canvassing where they are likely to be found. We can also focus on highly Democratic areas where turnout has been low, including Charlotte, Detroit, Milwaukee, Philadelphia and Phoenix, and persuade disaffected Dems to vote.    

With 15,000 canvassers in the field, each talking to an average of 200 voters, we will have 3 million conversations, enough to win all or most swing states. (Some volunteers will talk to fewer than 200 voters, but others will talk to far more.)  Volunteers willing to spend a week or more canvassing will be especially productive.   

We have a good start at getting 15,000 canvassers in battleground states. In North Carolina, All in For North Carolina is sponsoring four groups, with hundreds of paid canvassers plus volunteers, to knock on 4 million doors.  (Most people aren’t home, so the number of conversations is a relatively small percentage of the number of doors knocked.) The Mecklenburg County (NC) Democratic Party plans to knock on 700,000 doors in their county alone. Working America, focusing on large-scale paid canvassing in AZ, GA, MI, PA, and WI, has signed up 622,000 new members since November 2023. Many grassroots groups are organizing canvassing efforts now, as are some swing state Democratic parties. 

 Canvassing Has Never Been Easier

This year, almost anyone can canvass.  Financial support is available to those who need it.  

The Progressive Turnout Project will pay people $125 per turf to canvass in swing state areas that would not otherwise see canvassers. Since a turf takes 3-4 hours to walk, that’s a decent wage. The PTP plans to put at least 7,500 canvassers in the field. The PTP will be launching its program on August 13, at 5 p.m. PT, 8 p.m. ET. You can sign up to attend the Aug. 13 meeting here. To find out more about the PTP’s program, go here. 

That same meeting will also launch the Canvassing Connector. The CC will match  volunteer canvassers with urban areas in battleground states, each with vetted, well-organized operations. 

Starting in September, Seed The Vote, another very effective organization, will pay transportation and housing costs for volunteers canvassing in AZ, NV, PA, MI and WI. You can sign up to canvass through STV here.   

Sign Up Today! 

If you don’t want a fascist government controlled by Trump and his MAGA thugs, sign up to canvass today, and get your friends and family to join you. Almost anyone can be trained to canvass well. It’s not only good exercise, it can be lots of fun. With brigades of canvassers, we can win this election and elect our first female — and second Black — president. It’s Go Time!

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