Our Once-In-A-Lifetime Opportunity in 2026: Let’s Not Blow it
Expand the Playing Field and Spread the Wealth
By James D. Shelton
Trump’s river of political blunders plus Democrats’ army of energetic, appealing candidates up and down the ballot offer a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for massive gains and maybe even a major realignment. Yet Democratic efforts are super concentrated on a narrow set of marquee candidates. To become the clear majority party, we need to vigorously support a far wider net of candidates, make inroads in rural areas, appeal to working class voters, and especially promote down-ballot candidates, who will lead our governance in the future and bring out Democratic votes statewide.
Events supporting a major and perhaps a massive blue wave this year have been so numerous, and rapidly emerging, many have not absorbed the true magnitude of our opportunity. Let’s take stock, so we can rise to the challenge.
The Opportunities
Trump’s blunders have been numerous, but tariffs, ICE terror, and the Iran War, arguably lead the list. And their consequences belie his plethora of broken campaign promises. Further, his flagrant corruption and fanciful ego projects repel voters - notably the criminal reward slush fund, stock trades, and ballroom mania. Plus, the toady MAGA candidates he promotes tend to turn off voters. And his obvious mental and physical deterioration shatter efforts to portray himself as a strong leader. All this culminates in his historically high disapproval.
Deeply unpopular MAGA policies have registered with voters. Many swingy voters don’t weigh a wide range of issues but are motivated by one or two concerns. Trump has stumbled enormously on inflation, by far the most important concern in today’s politics. And his failure on the economy shatters the myth that Republicans are better for the economy and offers great potential for enlisting working-class voters. Yet, he is seriously under water on much more.
Recent polls, including Strength in Numbers/Verasight and New York Times/Siena, show a remarkably broad range of groups of voters who trended away from us in 2024 are returning in droves. These groups include: young, rural, Latino, African American, AAPI, White working class, low-income, low-information, independent and infrequent voters.
Trump’s unpopularity and policies carry over to tarnish other Republicans running for office this year as well, with “guilt by association.” And Congressional Republicans have taken clear unpopular votes such supporting the Iran War and Epstein file suppression. Moreover, the usual anti-incumbency bias against the party in power is highly magnified this year including toward red state politicians. Here’s some of the compelling evidence:
Republicans’ widespread polling on voter preference for Congressional and legislature candidates (generic ballot) already strongly portends a major if not massive blue wave.
Democrat-leaning voters are more highly motivated, as witnessed by polling and huge blue swings in numerous special elections, averaging on the order of 20 percent.
Significantly more voters voted in recent Democratic primaries than Republican, notably in North Carolina, Georgia and Texas.
Potential Rural Realignment
Rural voters are hugely important electorally and present our major opportunity toward a realignment. They have been buffeted by MAGA policies like tariffs, healthcare cuts, unfair taxes, diesel and fertilizer prices and inflation. What’s more, the longstanding decline of rural areas, including scarce jobs and erosion of public schools, has been exacerbated by right-wing Republican state-level policies. These disaffected rural voters are susceptible to “change” messaging and voting Democratic, if we reach them with appealing candidates and messages that resonate. Many rural voters are actually swingy. Moreover, with good outreach, we can activate long-neglected solid rural Democrat voters. Likewise, we need to re-establish appeal to working class voters in stressed factory towns and cities. An economic populism message aimed at rectifying Republican-advanced economic disparities, resonates well with both rural and urban working-class voters.
It’s difficult to assess rural sentiment in polling but signs point clearly our way. Voting in the recent Democratic primary was especially strong across rural North Carolina counties. A recent high-quality North Carolina poll found 41 percent of rural voters favored a Democratic legislature candidate vs 45 percent Republican! Further, this year’s Wisconsin Supreme Court special election saw large swings to the progressive candidate in numerous rural Wisconsin counties.
Demanding Electoral Map Realities
We simply can’t rely on traditionally blue states. The U.S. Senate map favors red-leaning states. So even to pick up the net of four seats this year, we need pickups among red-leaning states like Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Nebraska, Alaska, and North Carolina. Plus, we must defend seats in Georgia and New Hampshire.
On the U.S. House side, the current small Republican margin, plus recent Republican gerrymandering requires flipping a net of about 11 even for a bare majority. We need substantially more for a better working majority and positioning for 2028.
Compounding our challenge, also looming is the 2030 census which will cause a significant shift of House seats to currently red states and make winning the House and the electoral college more difficult. We simply must compete in red areas.
Things have moved so far and fast in our favor that many in our ecosystem don’t yet realize the huge potential. The influential Cook Report contributes to the problem as it is consistently behind the curve. For example, as of this writing they rate the Alaska Senate races as “Lean R” despite consistent recent polling finding Democratic nominee Mary Peltola ahead of her Republican opponent and Kalsi betting odds of 60 percent that she will win!
Spread the Wealth
Our system works against overall success with highly dysfunctional ultra-heaping of funding for a handful of U.S. Senate and House candidates. Well-funded incumbents and a couple dozen favored challengers are super well-funded. Moreover, huge direct funding for these campaigns is multiplied by massive support from super PACs, such as the Senate Majority PAC.
Not only does this give short shrift to other campaigns but political spending has huge diminishing returns. At such high levels of funding, the lion’s share goes to expensive TV advertising, which becomes saturated and has negligible impact at the margins. In contrast, there are second and third tier U.S. House races which are potentially winnable and where additional early funding would make a difference. Good examples are the “Reach” House races identified by Swing Left.
Priority for Trailblazer Legislature Candidates
Republican gerrymandering alone makes clear the importance of state legislatures. After decades of losing massive legislature clout, we now have solid potential for flipping chambers to Democratic control in Arizona (two chambers), Wisconsin (two chambers), New Hampshire, Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania. Plus, we have long-shot potential flips in North Carolina and Iowa. And everywhere, we have potential advances in Democratic proportions, sometimes achieving crucial veto-proof minorities.
Fortunately, we have a broad army of vigorous legislature candidates, often with working class and rural backgrounds, that fit their districts and can connect with voters. They can make strong inroads into neglected rural areas and promote Democratic values. Along with other down-ballot candidates they are a bedrock presence for the long-term and the bench for future higher office. They provide the huge benefit of bringing out voters who will vote Democratic for up-ballot national and statewide candidates as well.
Yet legislature campaigns are often seriously underfunded even for the basics such as staff and voter outreach. That’s especially true for those “leading edge” candidates in stretch races more at the margins of electability, often in red-leaning areas. These become more winnable in a blue wave. Accordingly, my organization, 31st Street Swing Left has recently funded statehouse candidate slates at that “leading edge” of electability in North Carolina and Iowa, which could even lead to flipping those chambers Democratic.
Action Agenda for an Epic Win in 2026.
Capitalizing on the opportunities outlined above, here are priorities to take advantage and strengthen the coming blue wave:
Contributions to second and third tier Democratic U.S. House candidates.
State legislature candidates, especially those “leading edge” candidates needful of support, in stretch but potentially winnable districts.
“Accountability” messaging efforts that inform and motivate voters by tying complicit Republicans to Trump. For example, their support for tariffs, the Iran war, Epstein Files, healthcare cuts, and inflation.
National organizations that support legislature and other local campaigns including emphasis on rural areas. Notably The States Project, Run for Something, Contest Every Race, States Win, and Rural Democracy Initiative.
Local organizations focusing on legislatures and other key races, including emphasis on red areas, e.g. Rural GroundGame in Virginia, Team Up NC in North Carolina, and numerous non-profit partners across the country.
State and local Democratic Parties in areas of opportunity and to build infrastructure in rural areas.
All the other voter outreach tools we use to support priority campaigns such as canvassing, phone banking, organizing, etc.
Finally, a last imperative for winning decisively in the 2026 midterms is to dispel the inevitable MAGA allegation of stolen elections. Happily, if we press our advantage, we have the real potential for an epic and sustainable blue wave and to get our country back on the right track. Let’s not blow it.
James D. Shelton is a retired public health physician and epidemiologist, and political analyst for 31st Street Swing Left.
Yes! Let's not squander this essential short term win opportunity. But, our present Republic is a much more complicated place than most of us think. We need a much longer view of solutions to our inherited societal and political complexities and need to identify them with priorities. Visit and delve into: EthicalGovtNow.org and help ensure a better long term future for your children and grandchildren or what we have they may inherit.
This is the piece every Democrat needs to read right now. The opportunity is real and it is massive — but only if we spread the wealth beyond the marquee candidates, go deep into rural areas, fund state legislature races, and refuse to let the usual dysfunction of concentrated spending squander what we have built. The blue wave is coming. Whether it is a ripple or a flood is up to us.