Three Reasons Why. . .

. . . Kamala Harris has a solid chance of winning

By Steve Schear

If Kamala Harris wins, there will be hundreds of reasons why. There will be about 150 million voters, each with their own influences and influencers.  If you are reading this, and Kamala wins, you are probably one of the reasons why, because you have likely done something to help. There’s no way of knowing what will happen, but here are three reasons that we have to be hopeful.  (There’s lots of other reasons, too.)

The Democratic ground game

The Trump campaign is so corrupt and short-sighted that it put no money or effort into field operations. When MAGA operatives finally realized their error, they got Elon Musk to fund a last-minute canvassing program.  There’s no reason to believe that Musk has been successful. Hiring paid canvassers and putting them to work with no training or experience doesn’t produce results.

I’m writing to you from North Carolina. After nine days of canvassing in Mecklenburg County, I have yet to see a MAGA canvasser, and only a single piece of GOP literature lying on the ground. Trump has no campaign operation here, as far as I can tell. Trump canvassers have been spotted in Bucks County, PA and elsewhere, but overall the Republican ground game seems very weak.

Our side, on the other hand, has thousands, possibly tens of thousands, of volunteer canvassers in swing states and districts. Most are high quality. People who travel out-of-state to talk to strangers are generally intelligent, self-confident fast learners. In a day of canvassing, I might pick up three to seven votes. Multiply that by thousands of canvassers over many days and you’ve gained tens of thousands of votes. On top of that, we have our phone bankers who are doing an unprecedented number of calls. There have been three million calls to Mecklenburg County voters alone.

Republicans who vote for Harris might swing the election.

This possibility is supported by lots of evidence, although none definitive. The turnout for Nikki Haley in Republican primaries, even after she had terminated her campaign, suggests that a fair share of Republicans really don’t want Trump as president. Anecdotally, when canvassing in Arizona I had several conversations with older white men who told me they have been life-long Republicans but can’t stand Trump and will vote for Harris. And although I don’t put much credence in polls, the new Iowa poll showing Harris ahead suggests that lots of Republicans must be getting behind her.

The Harris campaign obviously believes it can gain significant numbers of GOP voters. Harris’ appearances with Liz Cheney, her commitment to put a Republican in her cabinet, and her promise to appoint a bipartisan Council of Advisors are all going to win over Republicans. So will the growing number of prominent Republicans, from Arnold Schwarzenegger to former Reagan and Trump staffers, now pledged to vote for Harris.

Every Republican who crosses over is effectively worth two votes -- one less for Trump, and one more for Harris.  So a relatively small Republican shift toward Harris can have an outsized influence.  

Trump’s embrace of racism and misogyny

In the last two weeks, the Trump campaign has alienated both Latino voters and women.

At this point, it is not possible to measure how much comedian Tony Hinchcliffe’s statement at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally hurt Trump with Latinos. But calling Puerto Rico “a floating island of garbage” must have hurt a lot.  Latino TV, radio, and social media covered the “joke” extensively. The “joke” also led to Bad Bunny’s endorsement of Harris. If you are not familiar with Bad Bunny, he is a reggaeton singer immensely popular in the Latino community. His support will likely influence a significant share of his millions of followers.

Along with the abortion issue, Trump’s misogynistic comments — “I will protect women whether they like it or not” — are driving women to the polls in droves. Early voting data shows that 53 percent of early voters were women, only 44 percent men, with 3 percent unknown.  Early voting doesn’t tell us much we can rely on, but the disproportionate number of women voting early is a good sign.

I make no prediction

I gave up making predictions after 2016, when I was so wrong. We could lose, because MAGA has an extraordinarily powerful propaganda machine which we may not be able to defeat. But because of Republican support for Harris, our superior ground game, and Trump’s campaign errors, we can have confidence - but not certainty - that we will win. So enjoy election night. It just might be one of the sweetest days of our lives, a day we can cherish forever.