Why Talk to Republicans? Part 1

(Hint: Because 2024 presents a unique opportunity)

For the past seven years, America’s pro-democracy movement has made little or no effort to persuade Republicans to become Democrats. That made sense because every year we were deciding how to use limited resources to win the next elections. It is easier, and usually takes much less time, to persuade people who are politically independent, or not political, to vote for Democrats than it is to convince Republicans to change their votes.

But times have changed, and Trump’s reelection bid has opened a window of opportunity to move significant numbers of Republicans in our direction. We should take the chance to talk to Republicans and turn them blue, and not just for 2024. For the sake of brevity, I’m going to call Republicans Reds and Democrats Blues.

IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOWED A LOT OF REPUBLICANS DON’T LIKE TRUMP

Trump only won about half of the Republican primary votes in both Iowa and New Hampshire. What’s more, polling before the Iowa Caucus found that almost half (43%) of Nikki Haley’s supporters said they would vote for Biden rather than Trump. Among the larger pool of Iowa Republican caucus voters, more than one in ten said they would vote for Biden rather than Trump.

Iowa is now one of the most conservative states. If 11% of Iowa Reds are planning to vote for Biden, that suggests we could win millions of new votes nationwide by consolidating and reinforcing the GOP’s anti-Trump minority. Every time we persuade a Red to vote Blue, we effectively gain two votes, since the Republicans lose one and we gain one. If we can persuade even 3% of Reds to vote Blue in a swing state, that will often be enough to win.

WE CAN GET REDS TO VOTE BLUE

Lots of Blues know Reds but are afraid to try to persuade them to switch parties. Many Blues believe that it is not worth the time to talk to Reds because they are “cult members,” impossible to reach. Others have tried to talk to family, friends or strangers who are Reds, have failed to influence them and given up. But in my experience, you can talk to Reds if you keep it friendly, don’t get lured into arguments, and keep the conversation going over time. 

In 2022, while canvassing in North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia before the midterms, I noticed that some Reds I talked to were easy to flip to voting Blue. Those Reds were not immersed in politics. They had only been voting that way because other members of their family were Reds. When I talked to them about issues they cared about, like Medicare or abortion, I was able to move them to vote for Democrats. I also had good conversations with other Reds that led me to think I might swing their vote, too, if only I had more time. 

My random Red encounters while canvassing led me to spend 24 days last fall in Southeast Ohio talking for many hours with eight Reds.  One decided to become a Democrat, and three others ended up more likely to vote for Democrats in the future.

Many anti-Trump Republicans live in highly Red areas, and will be pushed at home, at work, at church, at a bar or a poker game to stay Red. Such social pressure can be weakened only if we make anti-Trump Reds feel wanted and welcome.

Most Reds also live in an information bubble rife with misinformation. When I was in Southeast Ohio, Fox News was playing not only in homes, but also in restaurants and hotel lobbies. The Epoch Times, Newsmax, right wing social media and other sources of anti-democratic propaganda construct a reality that cannot be altered with campaign ads. Talking to Reds not just once, but over time, is often the only way to affect their worldview.

TO BUILD A LASTING PRO-DEMOCRACY MAJORITY, WE NEED TO TALK TO REDS

Looking beyond 2024, we will not become a truly democratic country unless we begin to peel away Red voters. We will need to control 38 state legislatures to amend the Constitution to abolish the Electoral College, to allocate Senate seats based on population rather than statehood, and to prohibit partisan gerrymandering of congressional districts. Because Reds drastically outnumber Blues in at least 18 states, we will never obtain the needed supermajority unless we learn how to talk to Reds. Building enough political power to amend the Constitution will likely take two decades. It will take much longer if we don’t start talking persuasively to Reds now.

Because so many Reds don’t like Trump, the growing evidence of his mental instability, and his embrace of authoritarian positions and language, make 2024 a unique opportunity to persuade Reds to abandon their party and to join the Dems. Decisions on whether we should use campaign resources to reach out to Reds depends on the location, the issues and the available resources. For example, using the abortion issue to persuade suburban Red women in Arizona to vote Blue may well be worth the time and expense. In other places, it may be better to concentrate campaign time and money only on unaffiliated voters and Dems.

But all of us can talk politics with Reds we know. Starting political conversations with Reds can feel daunting but I’ve found an approach that can make many of these interactions downright fun. No kidding. In a future article, I’ll provide useful tactics for talking to Reds.  It all begins with respect…