Winning the Senate in 2026 Via Sweet Spot States of Alaska, Iowa & Nebraska

Investing in Local Social Media Influencers Now Offers a Promising Approach

By James Shelton, 31st Street Swing Left

We have a road to a Blue Senate in 2026 and it runs through three unlikely states. While Alaska, Iowa and Nebraska are considered red States, they offer a “Sweet Spot" opportunity toward a blue majority US Senate in 2026, largely because Republican actions are harming rural and other key constituencies. To win in these states we need to start now supporting local pro-democracy social media influencers to counteract the dominant rightwing propaganda machine. It takes time to build a critical mass of effective influencers to build strong followings and actually influence voters. Identifying and supporting these influencers now can put this Sweet Spot Triad into play for 2026.

Challenging Battlefield

Our challenging Senate map begins with only 47 Democrats and Independents. And we have to defend Georgia, Michigan and Minnesota. North Carolina and Maine are our best pick-up shots, and they will receive huge attention. Ohio, Texas and Florida, are long shots. But the Sweet Spot to a Blue majority are the triad of Alaska, Iowa and Nebraska.  

Why the Time is Right for These states to Flip  

We have major advantages especially for crucial rural and other key groups in these States. The impact of Trump’s tariff policies has profoundly lowered his popularity.  The tariffs fall disproportionately on farm economies, on small businesses, and low income voters, whose constituencies often vote Red. Drastic reductions in USAID food aid likewise significantly impact farming. Moreover, looming cuts in Medicaid  including closing rural hospitals and SNAP, will hit rural and low income voters disproportionately.

In addition, negative impact of DOGE havoc and other Administration policies on education, student aid, weather forecasting, public health, disaster assistance, medical research, universities, air traffic control, veterans, US parks, environment, government employees and contractors, Gaza, authoritarian actions, immigration, anti-DEI, corruption  and other policies will have an impact on various sub-groups, enough to motivate voting for pro-democracy candidates. Already we are seeing major shifts our way among key groups such as young and Latino voters. 

Blue Senate challengers have a long list of this administration's disastrous actions and other advantages: 

• Economic backlash from Trump tariff policies

• Negative impact of Tax Cut package on Medicaid, SNAP, Student Aid, etc. 

• Negative impact of DOGE & other Administration policies

• Anti-incumbency bias

• Midterm turnout - More educated voters more likely to vote. Trump not on ballot.

• Concern about rights infringement & corruption

• Concurrent competitive races - e.g. Governor & US House

• Potentially strong candidates

The Sweet Spot Triad

The states of Alaska, Iowa, and Nebraska make up the unlikely but strategically sound Sweet Spot Triad.

Alaska - Alaska is more progressive than commonly believed. Though Democratic voter registration is low, Alaska elected a Democrat to the US House in 2022, who only narrowly lost in 2024. Independent/Democratic coalitions control both legislature chambers. Alaskans are quite independent, swingy, diverse, young and issue-oriented. Incumbent Republican Senator Sullivan is remote, lackluster, and votes the National Republican party line. Alaska will be highly affected by tariffs and inflation, as well as major funding cuts such as Medicaid and SNAP. And Alaska has a very substantial proportion of Federal workers, impacted by DOGE havoc. Alaska’s rank choice voting can work to our advantage. Much depends on pro-democratic forces uniting and identifying a strong candidate - such as a populist Independent.

Iowa - The game is on in Iowa. Two appealing Democrats have already weighed in - Nathan Sage and J.D. Scholten, and Zach Wahls appears likely.  One early poll found all 3 competitive with incumbent Joni Ernst, even before her recent “Everyone Dies” town hall gaffe. Moreover popular Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand is running for Governor, and strong Democrats are vying for 2 highly competitive US House districts. Plus we just witnessed Democrat Mike Zimmer recently win a special state senate race in a district Trump won by 21%! Iowa has a strong progressive base and a Democratic shift among rural voters could definitely propel a win.

Nebraska - Independent populist Dan Osborn came remarkably close in 2024, and appears likely to run again. Incumbent  Pete Ricketts is remote and susceptible to the greedy billionaire label. Of course, Republican policies will be hard felt in highly rural Nebraska. With a longer time-runway for preparation this cycle and without Trump on the ballot, Osborn could win.

Promising Crucial  Role Local Social Media Influencers Can Play

A major reason for our losses in 2024 were the distractions and disinformation of the rightwing propaganda machine. This was particularly true in rural areas where rightwing talk radio is pervasive. But, local social media influencers can be a potent antidote to boost our messaging efforts substantially. Most Americans no longer get their news and information from traditional sources, but rather on-line. Thus, on-line influencers (AKA content creators,) on platforms such as TikTok or Youtube, addressing not just political but life-style topics, such as body-building or salmon fishing, have immense outreach and impact with their developed audiences. They are the future of political persuasion!

Accordingly, we have a major opportunity to identify, cultivate and support pro-democratic influencers in these priority States, including providing them with salient, especially local content. Supporting them includes helping them up their technical game, connecting and networking with peers, activists and candidates, and providing financial advice and support. Notably, this mode of influencing is different from one-off political campaign advertising. It is a long term interactive communication process. It takes considerable time to build a critical mass of such influencers, who in turn build strong followings, and register content with voters.  So we must begin now, with all deliberate speed. 

Organizing in Red States Also Matters

Compared to the usual battleground states, the Sweet Spot states have been neglected for organizing by nonprofits as well as state and local Democratic parties. Priorities include voter registration, canvassing, down-ballot candidate recruitment, training, and staff development.  In the current off-campaign, low ebb period, gearing up support now is key.  On one positive note, the Democratic National Committee has hiked its support for Red States Democratic Parties, albeit at still modest levels.

Join us in this Effort! 

At 31st Street Swing Left, we are aiming to support local influencers in these Sweet Spot states, as well as broader organizing efforts, in short order. A bonus of supporting blue influencers is their efforts can also help candidates up and down the ballot. We ask grassroots groups and others to join in. The environment can change of course, but Trump and other circumstances have given us a huge opportunity, not only to win the Senate, but to build our Democratic presence and infrastructure in these Red States for the future. 

For more information, contact jim31ststreet@gmail.com